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Monday, July 21, 2008
Dec’08 open interest this morning was 165,487 contracts, up
245. Total open interest was 219,395 contracts, up 248. Certificated stocks
total 1,721,288 bales, up 6,206 bales from the previous report. There were
18,481 bales awaiting review. The 2007/08 North European A-Index was up 5 points
at 78.10 and the B-Index remains unquoted. The Far Eastern A-Index was down 10
points at 77.35. The 2008/09 Far Eastern A-Index was down 5 points at 79.35.
As the option pit opened, Dec was hovering around 72.95. Trading again this
morning has been very light with Dec’s trading volume around 400 contracts. Dec
had opened this morning at 73.04 and made its current high of 73.55(+31) at
around 3:20AM. Dec’s current low of 72.81(-43) was made around 8:00AM. After
options started trading, Dec trading continued fairly light and moved from 72.92
up to 73.03. Dec then slowly moved back down to 72.81. By about 8:45AM Dec had
traded back up to 73.04. In Chicago, the electronic grain markets ended their
early morning session with U-Soybeans down 9 cents, U-Corn down 3 ½ cents, and
U-Wheat down 4 ¾ cents. Crude was trading up about $2.50 per barrel and the
dollar was a little weak, trading down about 5 points per the Dollar Index. Dec
trading continued slowly in a narrow range between 73.04 and 72.81 which it has
been trading in most of the morning. Around 9:38AM the selling picked up and
presently pushed Dec down to a new low of 72.05(-119). A lot of this selling may
be spill over selling from Crude Oil which was up only about 50 cents. Just
before the Chicago grains were to open, Dec bounced up to 72.33. As the grains
opened, Dec chopped erratically between 72.17 and 72.50. Dec then chopped
sideways between 72.50 and 72.30. In Chicago, the grains continued to quickly
sell off with Soybeans down about 32 cents, Corn down about 17 cents and Wheat
down about 15 cents. Around 10:50AM Dec inched its way through 72.50 and
steadily moved on up to 72.75. Little after 11:00AM the buying accelerated,
spiking Dec up to 73.20. Dec then slipped back to 73.00. Dec’s current rally has
been in the face of continued weakening grain prices. Dec held 73.00 and then
chopped mostly between 73.00 and 73.20. Around 11:15AM Dec had a spike down to
72.92 but quickly bounced back to the top of its earlier 20 point range. The
Chicago, grains continued to collapse, with Soybeans down over 41 cents, Corn
down over 24 cents, and Wheat down over 16 cents. Another wave of selling then
broke Dec back down to 72.61. Dec then chopped mostly between 72.61 and 72.90.
Around Noon, Dec moved through 72.90 and inched its way up to 72.97. Dec again
had trouble moving higher. Then Dec stair stepped its way back down to 72.59.
Dec then chopped its way back up to 73.11 which was reached around 1:30PM.
Fifteen minutes later Dec had slipped back down to 72.83. By 2:00PM Dec had
traded back over 73.00 and was able to trade up to 73.19. In Chicago, the grains
were getting pounded again with Soybeans trading down 55 to 61 cents and Corn
trading down about 22 cents. Just before the one minute settlement period, Dec
was pushed down to 72.85. During this period, Dec chopped from 72.92 down to
72.70. After this period, Dec ranged from 72.60 to 72.92. Dec’s last tick of the
session was at 72.60. The straddle activity was extremely light today. The
Oct/Dec straddle traded about 81 times, ranging from 260 to 295 points. The Dec/Mch
straddle traded about 278 times, ranging from 531 to 540 points. Dec closed
about in the middle of its 150 trading range, settling at 72.78(-46). Estimated
volume was 6,800 contracts. Previous day’s volume was 10.046 contracts.
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Daily Moving Averages: |
Dec |
Oct |
| 3 Day Average |
72.98 |
70.22 |
| 7 Day Average |
73.16 |
70.32 |
| 21 Day Average |
75.88 |
72.74 |
| 40 Day Average |
76.15 |
72.77 |
| 50 Day Average |
76.87 |
73.53 |
| 100 Day Average |
80.17 |
77.13 |
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| RSI: |
36.4 |
38.6 |
|
Contract |
High |
Low |
Previous |
Close |
Change |
| Oct '08 |
70.79 |
69.21 |
70.35 |
69.89 |
-46 |
| Dec '08 |
73.55 |
72.05 |
73.24 |
72.78 |
-46 |
| Mar '09 |
78.64 |
77.50 |
78.64 |
78.18 |
-46 |
| May '09 |
80.00 |
79.64 |
80.38 |
79.90 |
-48 |
| July '09 |
81.15 |
80.83 |
81.63 |
81.10 |
-53 |
| Oct '09 |
---- |
---- |
83.93 |
83.20 |
-73 |
| Dec '09 |
85.25 |
84.64 |
85.42 |
84.97 |
-45 |
| Mar '10 |
---- |
---- |
86.97 |
86.57 |
-40 |
| May '10 |
87.50 |
87.50 |
87.97 |
87.57 |
-40 |
| Jly '10 |
---- |
---- |
89.92 |
89.52 |
-40 |
Please address
comments to Weil Brothers-Cotton, Inc., at weilbros@weilbros.com.
Additional Market Information,
including Cotton Options, can be obtained from The New York Board of
Trade.
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